From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”